A thrilling MLB regular season, which featured much of the playoff picture coming down to the final day, has come to an end. The postseason field is set and October baseball is around the corner.
While offensive production, specifically home run-hitting, will be critical to team success, pitching—as it has for some time—will ultimately determine which club eventually hoists the Commissioner’s Trophy. In today’s age of high-octane bullpens, elite relief pitching has shortened the game and matters as much as, if not more than, starting pitching. But navigating those first several innings with a starter remains a crucial part of a team’s game plan.
So, which teams are best positioned to keep their opponents at bay until the battles of the bullpens commence?
PHILLIPS: The Most Significant Moments From MLB’s Wild Regular Season Finale
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Stats (rank among playoff teams): ERA: 3.61 (4th) | WHIP: 1.19 (5th) | K%: 25.2% (1st)
Yoshinobu YamamotoBlake SnellShohei OhtaniTyler Glasnow
Earlier in the season, it would have been blasphemous to rank the Dodgers’ injury-riddled rotation this high. But the staff has been the best in baseball in terms of ERA in the final month. If not for Paul Skenes, ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto may be the National League Cy Young Award winner. After a shoulder injury wrecked the first four months of his Dodgers tenure, Blake Snell has quickly rounded into form since his August return Oh, and Shohei Ohtani’s arm is, at long last, fully stretched out after he hurled a season-high six innings in his last outing. No. 4 option Tyler Glasnow is better than most teams’ second starter. Los Angeles is so stacked, Clayton Kershaw is being kept off the wild-card roster and is unlikely to start a game in his final playoff rodeo.
2. Philadelphia Phillies
Stats: ERA: 3.53 (1st) | WHIP: 1.18 (4th) | K%: 25.3% (2nd)
Cristopher SánchezRanger SuarezJesús LuzardoAaron Nola
The Phillies rotation took a major blow in August when ace Zack Wheeler was diagnosed with venous thoracic outlet syndrome, which required season-ending surgery. However, this remains a formidable bunch. All-Star snub Cristopher Sánchez was the best lefthander in the NL all year long, Ranger Suárez wasn’t too far behind him and Jesús Luzardo’s swing-and-miss upside figures to play well in October. Aaron Nola has struggled this season, but he, like Philadelphia’s rotation as a whole, is playoff battle-tested.
3. Seattle Mariners
Stats: ERA: 3.97 (10th) | WHIP: 1.18 (3rd) | K%: 23.7% (7th)
Logan GilbertLuis CastilloBryan WooGeorge Kirby
Admittedly, this lofty ranking depends largely on the status of Seattle’s ace Bryan Woo, who is nursing mild inflammation in his left pectoral muscle. But the Mariners’ decision not to place Woo on the 15-day IL inspires confidence in his status. For much of the regular season, Seattle had a good-but-not-great pitching rotation. In the season’s final month, the red-hot Mariners lived up to their potential to form one of the best staffs in baseball. Between Woo, Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo and George Kirby, Seattle boasts a rotation that excels at both strike-throwing and inducing swings-and-misses, the perfect October recipe.
4. New York Yankees
Stats: ERA: 3.61 (3rd) | WHIP: 1.20 (6th) | K%: 23.1 (4th)
Max FriedCarlos RodónCam SchlittlerLuis Gil
The Yankees’ 1–2 punch of Max Fried and Carlos Rodón is as good as any in baseball, and much of New York’s potential success will depend upon how well they pitch in the postseason. Fried and Rodón both have mixed bags in terms of prior history in the playoffs—the former was dominant in Atlanta’s 2021 World Series clincher, but has allowed 12 runs over just 9 1/3 innings in his three playoff starts since then—so there is a degree of uncertainty with New York’s rotation. It’s also unclear who would take the ball in a potential Game 3; 2024 AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil, who somehow has a 3.29 ERA despite recording nearly as many walks as strikeouts, or flamethrowing yet inexperienced rookie Cam Schlittler?
5. Cincinnati Reds
Stats: ERA: 3.85 (6th) | WHIP: 1.17 (2nd) | K%: 23.2% (9th)
Hunter GreeneNick LodoloAndrew AbbottBrady Singer
This might seem too generous of a ranking for the Reds, but what’s not to like? The club’s rotation limits traffic on the basepaths, misses bats and possesses a true ace in Hunter Greene, who, since returning from a groin strain in August, ranks 15th in ERA, fourth in strikeout rate, third in opponent batting average and second in swinging strike rate. He’s built to go toe-to-toe with anyone in October. Behind Greene, the Reds have one of the most underrated southpaws in the game in Nick Lodolo, who left his final regular season start in a precautionary move, as well as All-Star Andrew Abbott and veteran Brady Singer, who lost Sunday’s regular season finale but otherwise had a great second half.
6. Detroit Tigers
Stats: ERA: 3.91 (8th) | WHIP: 1.21 (7th) | K%: 24.9% (10th)
Tarik SkubalJack FlahertyCasey Mize
The Tigers have the best pitcher in the American League in Tarik Skubal, a hard-throwing, strikeout-inducing bulldog who largely proved he can handle October in 2024. Detroit has the biggest trump card in any series they’ll play because of Skubal. What’s behind him is why this rotation isn’t ranked higher. Jack Flaherty misses bats at a high rate and has been pitching better as of late, but struggled during the Dodgers’ 2024 World Series run. Casey Mize is a solid No. 3 starter, though he hasn’t yet pitched in October.
7. Cleveland Guardians
Stats: ERA: 3.86 (7th) | WHIP: 1.28 (11th) | K%: 21.7% (8th)
Tanner BibeeGavin WilliamsLogan AllenJoey Cantillo
If you’re wondering how the Guardians made the postseason, look no further than the club’s starting corps. There are no All-Stars here, but the sum is greater than its parts. The club’s rotation has the fourth-lowest ERA since the All-Star break and matched the second longest streak in MLB history with 19 consecutive games allowing two runs or fewer during its September surge. The combination of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen, Slade Cecconi, Parker Messick and Joey Cantillo doesn’t have a ton of swing-and-miss, but Cleveland’s impressive depth and run prevention prowess can’t be ignored.
8. Milwaukee Brewers
Stats: ERA: 3.56 (2nd) | WHIP: 1.22 (8th) | K%: 24.0% (5th)
Freddy PeraltaJose QuintanaQuinn PriesterChad Patrick
Earlier in September, the Brewers’ rotation would have earned a higher ranking. Freddy Peralta is a trusted veteran with elite swing-and-miss stuff, while groundball artist Quinn Priester represents a solid option behind him. Unfortunately, a wrench was thrown into Milwaukee’s postseason pitching plans when both Brandon Woodruff (3.20 ERA) and Jose Quintana (3.96 ERA) were placed on the IL in September. Quintana seems more likely to return for the division series than Woodruff—and Milwaukee might need him with rookie Jacob Misiorowski struggling since garnering his improbable All-Star nod.
9. San Diego Padres
Stats: ERA: 4.07 (11th) | WHIP: 1.25 (9th) | K%: 22.4% (3rd)
Nick PivettaDylan CeaseYu DarvishMichael King
The Padres possess the best bullpen in MLB but its rotation is a bit Jekyll and Hyde. Nick Pivetta (2.87 ERA) is a dependable No. 1 starter, but can get hit hard. The same can be said for Dylan Cease, who possesses nasty stuff but also allows some loud contact. Rounding out the rotation is some combination of Michael King, Yu Darvish and Randy Vásquez. Question marks aside, San Diego likely only needs five innings from its starters before turning to the bullpen. Should this group accomplish more than that, the Padres will be hard to beat.
10. Boston Red Sox
Stats: ERA: 3.92 (9th) | WHIP: 1.31 (12th) | K%: 21.9% (11th)
Garrett CrochetBrayan BelloLucas Giolito
If not for Skubal, Garrett Crochet would be the runaway favorite for the American League Cy Young award. With the use of his filthy cutter-sweeper-sinker mix, Crochet misses bats better than almost anyone—and if he doesn’t, batters hit the ball right into the dirt for a groundball out. The problem is, the rotation isn’t the sturdiest behind him. Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito each pitched to sub-3.50 ERAs this season, but neither have much swing-and-miss in their profiles. Perhaps the club’s sixth-ranked prospect, Connelly Early (2.33 ERA), can provide a postseason jolt?
11. Toronto Blue Jays
Stats: ERA: 4.34 (12th) | WHIP: 1.27 (10th) | K%: 22.2% (6th)
Kevin GausmanShane BieberTrey YesavageMax Scherzer
Toronto’s rotation took a depth hit when José Berríos was placed on the injured list, though the struggling starter hadn’t won since Aug. 12. Ace righthander Kevin Gausman brings an element of swing-and-miss, but has had mixed results in three career postseason starts. Trade deadline acquisition Shane Bieber has pitched well since arriving in Toronto, and future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer, though he has struggled, adds valuable experience. This low ranking won’t age well should 21-year-old rookie Trey Yesavage, who has pitched admirably in his first three career starts, keep it up in October.
12. Chicago Cubs
Stats: ERA: 3.83 (5th) | WHIP: 1.14 (1st) | K%: 20.5% (12th)
Shota ImanagaMatthew BoydJameson TaillonColin Rea
The Cubs’ staff sustained a huge blow when NL Rookie of the Year favorite Cade Horton was placed on the IL due to a fractured right rib, removing him from at least the wild-card round. Unfortunately for Chicago, its current projected playoff rotation is littered with question marks. Struggling de facto ace Shota Imanaga has served up 12 home runs in his last six starts. Matthew Boyd posted a 5.31 ERA in the season’s final month. The club’s steadiest option at the moment might be Jameson Taillon, who heavily relies on his defense and has made just one career postseason start.
