November football is here, and the competition continues to pick up with team's positioning themselves for Conference Championship appearances.
While the likes of Ohio State and Penn State will battle out with College Football Playoff stakes on the line, teams like Illinois and Minnesota will try to hit the stretch run of the season on a high note. Is the wrong team favored in this Big Ten showdown?
What about Indiana's road trip to East Lansing to face a competitive Michigan State team?
The Big Ten has plenty of intriguing matchups outside of the marquee one on Saturday, lets dish out straight up picks for every Top 25 matchup.
Season Record: 99-37
College Football Picks Against the Spread for Every Top 25 GameSan Diego State vs. Boise State Prediction and Pick
Pick: Boise State (-2500)
Duke vs. Miami (Florida) Prediction and Pick
Pick: Miami (Florida) -1600
Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Prediction and Pick
Pick: Arkansas (+210)
While Lane Kiffin is known for being the architect of high-powered offenses, it hasn’t resulted in overs in the betting market.
The Rebels have been an under-machine this season, going under the closing total in seven of eight games in 2024. The team’s offense has been elite, but the defense has far surpassed expectations. Further, with injuries mounting on the offensive side of the ball, the team has struggled to run up the scoreboard in SEC play, failing to score more than 27 points in four contests.
The team will travel to Fayetteville to take on Arkansas, who has been vulnerable to big passing plays, but has also showcased a strong defensive line that can put the Rebels in obvious passing downs. The Razorbacks defense is 38th in EPA/Play on early downs, and 36th in average third and fourth down success rate. Ole Miss has struggled on third down relative to expectations, only 49th in third and fourth down success rate.
Meanwhile, we saw Arkansas implement a rush-heavy script against Tennessee in a stunning upset a few weeks back, and can we see something similar here?
Arkansas is an elite rushing unit, top 10 in the country in success rate on the ground. Further, the team has been fantastic at extending drives, converting 48.5% of third downs which is 12th in the country.
I like the Hogs to be a running dog in this one and keep it within score, and possibly pull the upset.
Air Force vs. Army Prediction and Pick
Pick: Army (-4000)
Minnesota vs. Illinois Prediction and Pick
Pick: Illinois (+125)
Illinois is being underrated after an unsurprising loss at Oregon last week.
The team will face a Minnesota team that has had some good fortune of late, beating a pass-happy USC in a windstorm, pulling out a nail-biter against UCLA, and befitting from turnovers from Maryland to get an inflated score line.
I don’t trust the Golden Gophers traveling to Illinois to face a formidable passing game, led by Luke Altmyer, that is top third of the country in EPA/Pass and may be the most effective one that Minnesota has faced.
Ohio State vs. Penn State Prediction and Pick
Pick: Ohio State (-176)
Texas Tech vs. Iowa State Prediction and Pick
Pick: Iowa State (-580)
Oregon vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick
Pick: Oregon (-850)
Kansas State vs. Houston Prediction and Pick
Pick: Kansas State (-600)
Indiana vs. Michigan State Prediction and Pick
Pick: Michigan State (+225)
The Hoosiers undefeated season is starting to hit a breaking point. While the team is elite, it’s starting to run a bit lucky on variance driven plays, including forcing turnovers at an unsustainable clip. The Hoosiers have forced 14 turnovers, and had a pick-six to start the game against Washington.
I’m still curious to see how IU handles being behind on the scoreboard, something the team hasn’t dealt with all season to date. Can Michigan State get off to a strong start under head coach Jonathan Smith to put some scoreboard pressure on the Hoosiers?
Michigan State’s offense has plenty of upside with the emergence of freshman Nick Marsh but has been plagued by turnovers all season, turning it over at a bottom-20 rate in the country. However, the team has done a good job of staying on schedule, the top half of the nation in success rate and yards per play.
Meanwhile, the defensive line is the strength of the unit, top 35 in defensive line yards and EPA/Rush. If Rourke has any issues with his thumb and the Hoosiers passing attack takes a dip, this can be a struggle on offense.
I think there is a ton of variance in this game, and with that in mind, I'll take the home underdog to pull the upset.
Florida vs. Georgia Prediction and Pick
Pick: Georgia (-820)
Texas A&M vs. South Carolina Prediction and Pick
Pick: Texas A&M (-140)
While many may be skeptical that Texas A&M can turn around and win at South Carolina in a night game, I can’t trust this South Carolina team that was a double digit underdog against Ole Miss three weeks ago.
Texas A&M’s defensive line is among the best in the country and can give LaNorris Sellers and this South Carolina offense fits. The Gamecocks have allowed the second most sacks in the country this season and the Aggies have shown it can dominate a game at the line of scrimmage.
Whether it's Marcell Reed or Conner Weigman at quarterback for Texas A&M, I believe the team has enough firepower to win at a discounted price in a low scoring affair.
Louisville vs. Clemson Prediction and Pick
Pick: Clemson (-400)
Kentucky vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick
Pick: Tennessee (-820)
Pittsburgh vs. SMU Prediction and Pick
Pick: SMU (-300)
Pitt is undefeated, but far from trustworthy, fresh off a blowout result against Syracuse that was aided by three pick-sixes in the first half.
The Panthers' defense remains a big play funnel against potent passing games, and SMU has found its stride with Kevin Jennings under center. While the quarterback struggled at Duke in the fourth quarter, the Mustangs have still 28 or more in its five-game winning streak.
Not to mention, Pitt quarterback Eli Holstein is questionable for this one after leaving the Syracuse game due to injury. That is something worth monitoring ahead of this ACC clash.
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