By the end of tonight, the top two teams in the National League could be eliminated from the postseason at the hands of their two division foes. If this happens, it won’t be because the Dodgers and Braves were victims of bad luck. No, simply, it will be because they were outplayed.
The Phillies, who finished in third place and 14 games behind the defending champs in the NL East, have pummeled Atlanta's pitching while mostly playing uncharacteristically clean defense and mostly getting reliable contributions from their typically unreliable bullpen. Philadelphia has held the Braves to a total of seven runs in the three games (2.33 per game), while the Phillies have scored more than twice that (16 runs).
In their two wins, the Padres, who finished a whopping 22 games behind the Dodgers in the West, have beaten Los Angeles at their own game. The formula that has made the Dodgers the most dangerous team in the league over the last decade:
Strong starting pitchingNasty middle-to-late-inning relievers who seemingly came out of nowhereOne of the best closers of his eraMVP performance from a future Hall of FamerConsistent production from the bottom of the lineup
Yu Darvish (5 IP, 3 ER, 7 K) and Blake Snell (5 ⅓ IP, 1 ER, 6 K) have contained a Los Angeles lineup that led the majors with 5.23 runs per game. The San Diego bullpen has not allowed a run over 13 innings in the series, with Josh Hader closing out the two wins. Manny Machado is slashing .300/.462/.700 with a home run while dazzling on defense. Padres center fielder Trent Grisham and catcher Austin Nola, their No. 8 and 9 hitters, have combined to go 6-for-19 (.316) over the first three games.
Meanwhile, Dodgers shortstop Trea Turner, who is batting .308 with two home runs, has been their best hitter in the series. Yet, his sloppy and hesitant play both in the field and on the basepaths have cost L.A. in a tight series; each of the first three games have been decided by no more than two runs. Lefthanders Julio Urías and Clayton Kershaw, the Game 1 and 2 starters, respectively, performed well enough within the Dave Roberts playoff pitching plan (Urías won his start), but Tony Gonsolin, who in Game 3 made just his second start in the last seven weeks, couldn’t get through the second inning. The bullpen has been quite good (three runs, two earned) across the three games, though that doesn’t matter much when the San Diego ‘pen has held the L.A. offense scoreless.
For as well as the Phillies and Padres have played, let’s be careful not to write off the Braves and Dodgers just yet. Neither Atlanta nor Los Angeles has lost three straight games against their respective NLDS opponent this season. The Dodgers hadn’t lost back-to-back games to San Diego until last night.
And yet, that doesn’t erase what we’ve seen so far in the two series: The Phillies and Padres are outplaying the two best teams in the league.
